By: Jared Jorden
The long-term view says our state has lost 48,000 people since the 2010 census, and unless something changes, the population will only get lower.
A loss of 48,000 isn’t too significant out of the 1.8 million population. But compared to the nation’s population growing by 26 million, it’s a big drawback. This means that West Virginia struggles to attract and retain people. The most recent population estimates in the state are from July 2018. The actual 2020 numbers that come out will be more important and accurate, but the estimates give us an idea where we’re heading.
The direction we’re heading is not good. West Virginia has two problems that stick out to me. The first problem is that more people are moving out of the state than moving in. This is an issue that isn’t unique to West Virginia, at least 15 other states have had the same problem. The poor job market is often cited for a reason why people leave the state.
The other problem is West Virginians are dying faster than they are reproducing. 18% of our population is over 65 years old, which is the third highest in the nation. We’re also one of two states that has seen more deaths than births in the past 10 years. The other state is Maine, but they have significantly more migration than West Virginia, so it’s not a problem for them. West Virginia has lost roughly 30,000 to migration and it has about 20,000 more deaths than births.
The population number in West Virginia could be looked at as an asset or a liability. The state isn’t taking on too many people to support, but our economy isn’t strong enough to support people financially.
The biggest impact in my opinion will be on the state’s national representation. If we continue this declining population, West Virginia will lose one of its three seats in the House of Representatives in the 2022 election. Which in turn means we will have one fewer electoral vote for the 2024 presidential election.
In the 1930s and 40s West Virginia had six seats in the house while Florida only had five. Florida now has 27 and will probably gain more after the 2020 census. Florida had gained more people through migration (2.2 million) in the past 10 years than West Virginia has in population (1.8 million).
The politics of it is worrisome for our state, but the economy is the most important thing we should focus on to strive for a prosperous future.
Almost Heaven, Almost Hell 